Florida

The 2.5% shift to Bush gives him Florida and its 27 electoral votes

Exit polls available Check calculations

Time	interviews	Documents	Kerry	Bush
8.40 pm	2846*	page 1of the exit poll (pdf) Full 8 page NEP poll	49.9%	50.1%
12.21 pm	2846*	page 1of the exit poll (pdf) (identical to the 8.40 release)	49.9%	50.1%
		Declared result:	47.5%	52.5%
1.01 a.m	2862*	The fixed CNN release Final CNN release	48.3%	51.9%

* NEP declared they only conducted 2760 interviews for the Florida exit poll.

See NEP methods statement concerning the State polls

Note: The 8.40 and 12.21 releases appear to be identical and are clearly the same release as the “Full 8 page NEP poll”.

This can be seen from the fact that the figures are identical to those on the CNN screen shots, and the fact that on the last table,

“Geo Stratum code” (or regional breakdown) the number of respondents is listed as 2846 the same as on the 2 CNN screen shots.

The full NEP allows us to make the following analysis of the striking discrepancy between the exit poll and the tabulated vote in

Miami-Dade county.

A look at the Miami figures

Time	Documents	Kerry	Bush
8.40 pm/ 12.21 pm	Full 8 page NEP poll	62%	37%
	Theoretical vote simulation	476503	284365
	Declared result:	406099	358613
		52.8%	46.5%
1.01 a.m	Final CNN release	59%	40%

The above 9.5% shift to Bush is equivalent to a reduction of 144, 000 votes in the Kerry lead over Bush in Miami-Dade county.

exitpollz.org - 2004 election exit polls