Original exit polls documents for the 2004 election

Zogby International's 2004 predictions

	Electoral Votes
Kerry	311
Bush	213
too close to call	Nevada (5)
too close to call	Colorado (9)

Zogby key State details

Spotlight on Florida

Spotlight on Ohio

See below for other States

-scanned CNN printouts from Jonathan Simon

National Exit Poll Check calculations

Time	interviews	Exit poll Documents	Kerry	Bush
3.59 pm	8 349	NEP exit poll - 8 Pages (pdf)	51.3%	48.7%
7.38 pm	11 027	NEP exit poll -8pages (pdf) same release from CNN	51.5%	48.5%
12.23 a.m	13 047*	CNN release page 1 (jpg) page2 page3 page4 (jpg)	51.3%	48.7%
		Declared result:	48.6%	51.4%
11/03 12.53pm	13 531*	The fixed poll-CNN release	48.3%	51.7%
11/03 1.24 pm.	13 660*	The fixed NEP exit poll	48.3%	51.7%

* Only 12 219 interviews were conducted according to the NEP methods statement

exitpollz.org - 2004 election exit polls

NOTE:We now know from the NEP report of January 2005 that for many States the shifts were in fact even greater than shown below.
This is because the exit poll data on which these calculations are based, had in many cases had already been "adjusted" towards the "emerging" result.
More accurate data State by State is available on THIS IS CNN as it was on election Night" OR here in tabular format

Alabama	Kerry	Bush
Exit poll 12.17 a.m	41.1%	58.9%	Alabama exit poll
Declared result:	37.1%	62.9%	4.0% shift to Bush
Alaska	Kerry	Bush
Exit poll 1.00 a.m	40.1%	59.9%	Alaska exit poll
Declared result:	36.2%	63.8%	4.0% shift to Bush
Arizona	Kerry	Bush
Exit poll 12.19 a.m.	46.9%	53.1%	Arizona exit poll
Declared result:	44.8%	55.2%	2.1% shift to Bush
Arkansas	Kerry	Bush
Exit poll 12.22 a.m.	46.3%	53.7%	Arkansas exit poll
Declared result:	45.0%	55.0%	1.3% shift to Bush
California	Kerry	Bush
Exit poll 12.23 a.m.	55.7%	44.3%	California exit polls
Declared result:	55.0%	45.0%	0.7% shift to Bush

Colorado	Kerry	Bush	Colorado Spotlight
Exit poll 9:26 pm	49.1%	50.9%
Declared result:	47.3%	52.7%	1.7% shift to Bush
Connecticut	Kerry	Bush
Exit poll 12:22 pm	58.5%	41.5%	Connecticut exit polls
Declared result:	55.2%	44.8%	3.2% shift to Bush
D. Columbia	Kerry	Bush
Exit poll 12:22 pm	91.5%	8.5%	DC exit poll
Declared result:	90.6%	9.4%	0.9% shift to Bush
Delaware	Kerry	Bush
Exit poll 12:22 pm	58.1%	41.9%	Delaware exit poll
Declared result:	53.8%	46.2%	4.3% shift to Bush
Florida	Kerry	Bush	Spotlight on Florida
Exit poll 12:21 pm	49.9%	50.1%	2.5% shift to Bush
Declared result:	47.5%	52.5%	gives him the State

NEP methods statement concerning the State polls Check the above calculations (Excel)

exitpollz.org - 2004 election exit polls

Georgia	Kerry	Bush
Exit poll 12.22 a.m	43.0%	57.0%	Georgia exit poll
Declared result:	41.6%	58.4%	1.4% shift to Bush
Hawaii	Kerry	Bush
Exit poll 12.22 a.m	53.3%	46.7%	Hawaii exit poll
Declared result:	54.4%	45.6%	1.1% shift to Kerry
Idaho	Kerry	Bush
Exit poll 12.22 a.m